>> AND NOW, WE GO TOUKRAINEAND RUSSIA'S REINS TIGHTENING.

WELIVE IN AGEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY.

ANDACCORDING FORECAST, PRESIDENT TRUMP'SPOLICY COULDADD FUEL TO THE POLICIES.

IAN BREMMER ISFOUNDER OF THE EURASIA GROUP,AND HE JOINS WALTER ISSACSONFOR A DISCUSSION.

>> THANKYOU, PAULA.

IAN BREMMER, WELCOME BACKTO THE SHOW.

>>GOOD TO SEE YOU.

>> EVERY YEAR, YOURGROUP, THE EURASIA GROUP HAS A GLOBALRISK ASSESSMENT, AND THIS TIME, YOUSAY THAT WEARE HEADED BACK TO THE LAW OF THEJUNGLE, AND WHAT DO YOUMEAN BY THAT?

>> IT IS THEMOST DANGEROUS PERIOD GEOPOLITICALLYSINCE WORLD WAR IIOR THE EARLY COLD WAR BEFORE THECUBAN MISSILE CRISIS.

IT IS A WORLDWHERE THESTRONG DO WHAT THEY WILL, AND THEWEAK SUFFER WHAT THEY MUST.

ANDTHE UNITED STATES IS BOTH ANAN --IN ANINCREDIBLY STRONG POSITION COMPAREDTOCHINA AND RUSSIA,AND OTHERS LOSING THEIREMPIRE PROXIES INTHE REGION, BUT MILITARILY AND ALLOFTHE ALLIES WHICH IS CERTAINLY TRUECOMPARED TO WHERETRUMP'S U. S. WAS IN 2017.

SOTHE FACTTHAT THATPOWER IMBALANCE EXIST, AND INA POINT WHERE WE DON'T WANTTO PROMOTE GLOBAL TRADE ORRULE OF LAW OR DEMOCRACY, NO, WE WANTTO RIP UP OUR OWN GLOBAL ORDER WHICHIS NOTSOMETHING THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN HISTORYAND INSTEAD GET THE COUNTRIESTO CUT DEALS WITH USALLY AND WEDON'T CARE WHAT THE POLITICAL OR ECONOMICSYSTEMSARE, AND THEY WILL DEAL WITH US ORTHERE IS GOINGTO BE HE WILL, LLTO PAY, AND THATIS WHAT IS DRIVE SOG IS DRIVING SOMUCH OFTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THECOMING YEAR.

>> AND YOU SAY THAT ISTHETRUMP GLOBAL WORLD BASED ON FREE TRADE,BUT ISN'T THERE A BACKLASHIN THE UNITED STATES AND THE RESTOF THE WESTERN WORLD AGAINSTTHE FREE TRADE GLOBAL ORDER THAT LEFTSO MANY PEOPLE OUT?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

TRUMP IS NOT THE LEADRISK HERE.

TRUMP IS THE LEAD SYMPTOMOF SOMETHING THAT HASBEEN COMING FOR DECADES, WALTER.

IMEAN, THE FACT IS THATTHE AVERAGE --DEMOCRAT, REPUBLICAN ORLEANS EITHER WAY --DOESN'T BELIEVE THAT THE WORLDLEANS THEIR WAY OR BECAUSE OF THEFIGHTING ALL OVER THEWORLD BENEFITS THEM AND THAT THE UNITEDSTATES IS A REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACYAND CERTAINLY IS NOT INTERESTED INEXPORTING THE MODELALL OVER THE WORLD.

SO, YES, IT ISABSOLUTELY TRUETHAT THE AMERICANS DON'T SUPPORT THESETHINGS.

AND ITIS ALSO TRUE THAT TRUMP HAS INCREASINGLYALOT OF LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE AMONG ALLIESAND SOME OF WHOM WHO HAVE ELECTEDTHEIROWN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT FOLKS INTOOFFICE,AND THINK ABOUTJAVIER MILLAYIN ARGENTINA AND THOSE IN SALVADOR,AND EVEN IN ITALY AND COUNTRIES THATREALLY, REALLY OPPOSE WHAT TRUMP ISSTANDINGFOR, AND YOU HAVE LARGE PERCENTAGESOF THE POPULATIONSTHAT ARE SYMPATHETIC, AND ELONMUSK SAYING THAT THEAFD, THE ALTERNATIVESFOR DEUTSCHELAND IS DOING THAT WITHTHE FULL SUPPORT OF TRUMPOR THE KING OF ENGLAND HAS TO STEPIN SOTHAT THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER HASTO STEP DOWN, THATIS A MESSAGE THAT RESONATES WITH MINORITYPARTS OF THOSE POPULATIONS, BUT GROWINGPARTS OFTHE POPULATIONS, WALTER.

>> YOU HAVETALKED ABOUTTHE RISKS OF TRUMP COMINGINTO OFFICE, AND THE DEMOCRATS HAVESAID THAT HE IS A RISKTO DEMOCRACY, ITSELF.

DO YOU BELIEVETHATTHERE IS AN IMMINENT RISK TO DEMOCRACYBECAUSE OFTHE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?

>> NO.

ITHINK IT ISOVERSTATED.

AND ANYONE WHO HAS WATCHEDTHE WAY THATBIDEN HAS COMPORTED HIMSELFIN ENGAGING WITH TRUMP ASWELL AS HIS ENTIRE ADMINISTRATIONOVER THE LAST TRANSITION PERIODWOULD KNOW THAT THERE IS A LOT OFEXAGGERATION, AND THATTHE DEMOCRATS WERE USING WITH AN IMMINENTCONCERNTHAT DEMOCRACY WAS GOING TO FAIL.

I DON'T BELIEVETHAT TRUMP IS COMMITTED TO RULE OFLAW OR DEMOCRACY,AND IN FACT, I THINK THAT IN MANYWAYSHE FINDSITENIMICAL TO CHECKS AND BALANCES, ANDTHAT IS A SYSTEM THAT THEAMERICAN SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW TRUMPTO DO.

THAT ISTHE JUDICIARYAND LEGISLATURE ISLARGELY ELECTED, AND THE MILITARYIS LARGELY PROFESSIONAL MILITARY.

AND THERE ARE SOMANY RULES IN THE FEDERAL SYSTEM INCLUDINGHOW ELECTIONS ARE RUN ARE NOT RUNAT THE FEDERALSYSTEM AT THE DISCRETION OF THE PRESIDENCY,BUT THEY ARERUN BY LOCAL STATEADMINISTRATIONS, RED AND BLUE, THATARE PRETTY WELLRUN.

SO ALL OF THAT IMPLIES THAT THEUNITED STATES IS NOTAT THE BRINK OF DICTATORSHIP,BUT A TRUMP WHO IS WILLING TO ACTIN AMAXIMALLY TRANSACTIONAL WAY AND FEELSTHAT HISPOLITICAL ADVERSARIES HAVE USEDPARTS OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT TOGO AFTER HIM, AND WHETHER IT ISIMPEACHMENTS THAT HE BELIEVES AREINAPPROPRIATE OR EFFORTS TO INVESTIGATEHIM OR PUT HIMIN JAIL OR EVEN NOT GETTING ENOUGHSECRET SERVICE SUPPORT AROUND HIM,AND HE ALMOST WASKILLED BY AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT,THAT DOES IMPLYTHAT HE IS GOING TO BE MORE WILLINGTHAN ONE WOULD BE COMFORTABLE WITHTO USE THEPOWER MINISTRIES IN THE U. S. , THEFBI, THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, THEIRS,OTHERS TO GO AFTER HIS ENEMIES.

TOPOLITICIZE THEM, TO WEAPONIZE THEM,BECAUSE HEBELIEVES THEY HAVE BEEN POLITICIZEAND WEAPONIZED AGAINSTHIM, ANDCERTAINLY, KASH PATEL, WHO HAS BEENONE OF THEMOST CONTROVERSIAL APPOINTMENTS ANDHAS HAD A ROUGHRIDE IN HIS PRIVATE MEETINGS WITHTHE REPUBLICAN SENATORS THE, BECAUSE--SENATOR, BECAUSE HE HAS NOT BEENABLE TO ADEQUATELY EXPLAIN HIS VISIONFOR THE DIRECTOR OFTHE FBI, BUT HE IS VERY CLEAR OF HISENEMIESARE, AND HIS LIST OF ENEMIES THATHE WOULD WANTTO GO AFTER IF HE BECAME THE FBI DIRECTOR,AND I BELIEVETHAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE ACHILLING EFFECT ON HOW PEOPLE AREWILLINGTO COMFORT THEMSELVES PUBLICLY.

ITHINK THAT WHENYOU ARE SEEING SOMEONELIKE MARK ZUCKERBERG DO A 180IN SO MANY WAYS AFTER TRUMP AND ELONBY CONNECTION WIN, I THINK THAT YOUWILL SEE A LOT MOREOF THAT AMONG POLITICAL ANDECONOMIC ELITES IN THE UNITED STATES.

>> TRUMP HAS A SORT OF VIEW OFTHE WORLD THAT HE CAN GET ALONG WITHPEOPLE, AND SOMEHOWOR ANOTHER EVEN THE STRONGEST,EN NORTHKOREA OR WHATEVER, HE CAN DO THE PERSONALDIPLOMACY, AND DO YOU THINK THAT THEREIS A POSSIBILITY OFTHE NATURAL BREAKTHROUGH OR MORE OFAN ACCORDWITH THE U. S. AND CHINA?

>> WITHTRUMP, NEVER SAY NEVER, BECAUSE THEINVASION STARTED IN 2022 AND BIDENAND PUTINHAVE NOT SPOKEN, AND SO CLEARLY, AWILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE, AND YOU MENTIONEDWITH THE NORTHKOREANS AND WITH IRAN, I THINKTHAT TRUMP WILL PUT MUCHTOUGHER SANCTIONS ON IRAN THAN BIDEN,BUT THERE IS GOING TO BEA WILLINGNESS TO HEAR AN OFFER INTEHRAN THAT IS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTTHAN THEJPCOA, AND NEVER SAY NEVER,BUT, WALTER, FOR ALL OF THE CRITICISMOFTRUMP BEING IN PUTIN'S POCKET, THEREALITY OF THEFIRST TERM IS THAT U. S. POLICY TOWARDRUSSIA WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE HAWKISHTHANUNDER OBAMA.

IT IS TRUMP WHO GAVETHE UKRAINIANS THE JAVELIN MISSILESAND OBAMA REFUSED, BECAUSE HE THOUGHTTHAT ITWAS TOO MUCH RISK, AND IT WAS TRUMPTHATADDED TO THE SANCTIONS, AND SO THEFACT THAT TRUMP IS WILLING TO TALKDOESNOT MEAN HE WILL GET TO A DEAL.

HE WILL ENGAGEWITH XI JINPING, AND ELONWOULD MEET WITH XI JINPING, AND ITIS NOT THE FIRST TIMEHE HAS MET HIM.

ELON HAS A LOT OFEXPOSURETO CHINA, BUT ULTIMATELY, THE STRONGDESIRE TOCONTAIN CHINA AMONG ALL OF TRUMP'SKEYNATIONAL ADVISERS AND ALL OF THE REPUBLICANSIN CONGRESS MAKE THIS TOO HARD.

THE DEMANDS ON CHINA MAKE THIS TOOHARD.

THE DESIRE OF THE AMERICANS TO USETARIFFS AS A PRINCIPLE ELEMENT OFECONOMIC AND NATIONALSECURITY POLICY MAKE THIS TOO HARD.

SO, WHATI AM SAYING IS THAT THE BET THAT YOUWOULD MAKE THIS YEAR ISTHAT U. S. /CHINARELATIONS GET A LOT WORSE.

>> SO,WE HAVE SEEN, IT SEEMS, ABREAKTHROUGH IN GAZA.

DO YOU THINKTHAT PRESIDENT TRUMPIS POSITIONED TO DO SOMETHING SIGNIFICANTIN THE MIDDLE EAST GIVEN THE WEAKENINGOF IRAN,HIS RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE GULF STATESAND THE CHANGES THAT ARE NOW HAPPENINGWITHISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS?

>> LOOK,BEFORE OCTOBER7th, ISRAEL WAS CLEARLY THE DOMINANTMILITARY POWER IN THE REGION, ANDIT TURNS OUT THAT ISRAELIS STILL THE DOMINANT MILITARY POWERIN THEREGION, AND THEY CAN DETERMINE BOTHESCALATION,AND DE-ESCALATION ON THEIR TIMETABLE,AND ACCORDING TO THEIRPREFERENCES, AND THEY ARE THAT DOMINANTIN LARGEPART, BECAUSE THE UNITED STATESPROVIDES AN IMMENSEAMOUNT OF MILITARY AID ANDTECHNOLOGICAL SUPPORT AND OTHERS.

THEY HAVE BUILT OUT AUTONOMOUS TRADE.

AND TRUMP'S BEST CAPABILITIES WITHTHE ISRAELIGOVERNMENT AND THE GULF STATES.

THATIS THE FIRST TRIP AS PRESIDENT THELAST TIME AROUND, AND YOU REMEMBERHE GOES TO ISRAEL AND HEGRABS THE ORB WITH THE SAUDIS ANDTHEGULF STATES, AND THAT IS STILL TRUE.

IT IS ALOT OF ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT, AND POLITICALSUPPORT FORHIM, AND THEY WERE ALL HAPPY TO SEETRUMP WIN.

HE ISGOING TO BE COMFORTABLE WITH THE FACTTHATTHE ISRAELIS AND THE GULF STATES AREON TOP RIGHT NOW, AND THATTHE IRANIANS ARE IN SERIOUSTROUBLE, HAVING LOST ALMOST ALL OFTHEIR ALLIES AND ALL OF THE PEOPLETHEY SUPPORT.

LOSING HEZBOLLAH, ANDSIXMONTHS AGO, THEY WERE THE MOST POWERFULNONMILITARY STATE ACTOR IN THE WORLD,AND THEY HAVE BEEN DESTROYED ANDTHE IRANIANS CAN'T GET THEMSUPPORT, BECAUSE THE MAIN ROUTE WASTHEASSAD ROUTE, AND NOW HE IS GONE.

ANDTHAT SURPRISED EVERYBODY.

SO NOW,TRUMP IS IN THE DRIVER'S SEATIN MIDDLE EAST, BUT ONE BIG QUESTIONIS GOING TO BE WHATHE DECIDES TO DO WITH THATPOSITION, VIS-A-VIS, AMERICA'STOP ADVERSARY IRAN.

WILL HE SQUEEZETHEM WITH MORESANCTIONS AND PREVENT THEM FROM EXPORTINGA LOT OF OIL THROUGHTHE UNFLAGGED TANKERS WHICH HE CANDO, AND ITIS GOING TO HURT CHINA OR OTHERS,ORMIGHT HE CONSIDER DIRECT MILITARYSTRIKES EVEN AGAINST THENUCLEAR CAPABILITIES WHICH THE ISRAELIPRIME MINISTERWOULD SORELY LIKE HIM TO DO.

I SUSPECTTHAT IT WILL BE THEFORMER AND NOT THE LATTER AT LEASTIN THEOPENING MONTHS, BECAUSE I DON'T THINKTHAT TRUMP WANTS TO RISK$100-PLUS OIL.

I DON'T THINK THATHE WANTSTO RISK A BROADER WAR THAT HE, YOUKNOW,HE PLAYED A ROLE IN STARTING.

BUTIT ISABSOLUTELY PLAUSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IFTHE IRANIANSDON'T RESPOND WELL TO THE GREATERPRESSURE THEY ARE GOINGTO BE FACING FROM THE U. S. ANDISRAEL.

>> IRAN IS ON THE ROPES ASYOU SAY,AND I THINK THAT SECRETARY OF STATEBLINKEN SAID THEY COULD HAVE A TWO-WEEKBREAKOUT PERIOD BEFORE THEY COULDCREATE MOREENHANCED NUCLEAR ENHANCEDCAPABILITIES.

DO YOU THINK THAT IRANWILL DO THAT NOW THAT THEYARE ON THE ROPES?

>> THERE IS A BIGDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THATAND OPERATIONAL NUCLEAR BOMB.

ALLOF THE EXPERTS SAY ITIS SIX MONTHS MINIMUM TO THAT ANDPROBABLY A YEAR BEFOREYOU COULD ACTUALLY HAVE THAT BOMBWITH SOME FORM OF DELIVERY SYSTEMATTACHED TO IT.

THE PERIOD IN WHICHTHEY WOULDBE MAKING AN EFFORT TOWARDSTHAT BREAKOUT WOULD BE VERY CLEARBOTHTO THE INTERNATIONAL INSPECTORS ANDOF COURSE TO THE PEOPLE WHOCOULD STOP THEM.

SO I THINK THATTHE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT WOULD BE VERY,VERYHARD PRESSED TO TAKE ON THAT KINDOF A DIRECT RISK TO THEIR OWNREGIME, BECAUSE IF ANYTHING WERE GOINGTO INCENTIVIZE THE ISRAELIS AND THEAMERICANS TO TRYAND TAKE THE REGIME OUT, IT WOULDBE THAT BEHAVIOR.

>> WHAT ABOUT UKRAINE?

DO YOU THINKTHAT NOW THATTHERE'S GOING TO HAVE TO BE A SETTLEMENTOR CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE, OR IS THERESOME OTHERWAY THAT THIS CAN BE RESOLVED?

>>I THINK THATA CEASE-FIRE IS VERY LIKELY.

TRUMPIS CERTAINLY VERY STRONGLY WANTINGONE.

ANDTHE EUROPEAN ALLIES IN NATO WANTTO RECOGNIZE WHERE WE NEED TO GO,BECAUSE THE UKRAINIANS DON'THAVE THE CAPACITY TO CONTINUE TO FIGHTAND TOCONTINUE TO RAISE THE YOUNG MEN THATTHEYHAVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST THREEYEARS, AND BY THEWAY, NOT SO YOUNG MEN INUKRAINE DOING A LOT OF THE FIGHTINGRIGHT NOW.

SO, YEAH, THEREIS A PUSH, BUT IT IS A LOT EASIERTO GETTHE UKRAINIANS TO NEGOTIATE RIGHTNOW THANTHE RUSSIANS.

I THOUGHT THAT ONE OFTRUMP'S POSTS IN THEPAST FEW WEEKS WASVERY INTERESTING WHEN HE SAID THATMAYBE THE CHINESECAN HELP.

HE UNDERSTANDS THAT HE DOESNOT HAVETHE PERSONAL LEVERAGE ON PUTIN THATTHE CHINESE DO.

AND THEIDEA THAT TRUMP IS GOING TO BE INPUTIN'S POCKETIS, I THINK, AMYTH PERPETUATED BY HIS OPPONENTS.

HE DOES WANTTO END THE WAR, AND THE WILLINGNESSTO END THE WARWILL INCLUDE UKRAINE RECOGNIZING THATTHEY ARE NOT GOING TOGET A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF THELAND THATRUSSIA OCCUPIES BACK.

THEY ARE GOINGTO BEDEFACTOR PARTITIONED, BUT RUSSIA ISGOING TO HAVE TOACCEPT CONTINUED SECURITY GUARANTEESFOR UKRAINE.

THEYARE GOING TO HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT THEREST OFUKRAINE IS SOVEREIGN ANDIS ALIGNED BY AND ARMED BY THE WEST.

THAT IS NOT GOING TOBE EASY FOR PUTIN TO ACCEPT.

A TEMPORARY CEASE-FIRE, SURE.

WE HAVE42 DAYS CEASE-FIRE WITH GAZA, BUTISTHAT REALLY GOING TO END THE FIGHTINGLONG-TERMOR REALLY END THE PROXY WAR THAT RUSSIAISNOW FIGHTING ESSENTIALLY WITH NATO?

AND THERE THE ANSWER IS NO, BECAUSEIT ISA MUCH LONGER TERM CONCERN.

>> YOUSAY THAT MAYBE CHINA CANHELP WITH THE UKRAINE SITUATION, ANDIS THAT A GOOD THING THAT WE WANTCHINATO HELP.

IN UKRAINE OR IN THE MIDDLEEAST?

>> WE DON'T WANT CHINA TO BE PUSHEDINTOTHE CORNER TO FEEL LIKE THEY HAVETO BE ALLIED WITH THE WORST ACTORSIN THEWORLD, RUSSIA,CHINA AND THE ALLIES IN THE EAST.

THEYHAVE ENGAGEDIN DUAL-DUAL-TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS.

THEY HAVE ENGAGED ON THE WORLD STAGE,AND THEY WANT AN END TO THE WAR, ANDTHEY WANT BETTERTRADE RELATIONS TO THE PARTNERS INCLUDINGTHE EUROPEANSWHO ARE WILLING TO DECOUPLE FROM THEM,AND THEY ARE THEFRONT LINES WHO NEED THE CAPITAL THEMOST, LIKE THE POLISH ANDTHE ROMANIAN, BUTBECAUSE THE CHINESE HAVE BEENSUPPORTIVE IN THE UKRAINIAN WAR.

SOI BELIEVETHAT TRUMP IS CORRECT TO SAY, WE SHOULDBE LOOKING TO ENGAGEWITH THE CHINESE TOPUSH THEM TO STABILITY.

>> YOU PUTOUT THE GLOBALRISK SUCH PORT THIS TIME OF YEAR,AND LET MEASK YOU THEMORE BRIGHT SPOT HERE.

WHAT IS THEGLOBALOPPORTUNITY THAT YOU FIND SURPRISINGTO YOU?

>> ONE, TRUMP IS GOING TOBE GETTING A LOT OF WIN, BECAUSE HEIS ACTUALLYVERY POWERFUL BOTH DOMESTICALLY ANDGLOBALLY AND THISIS GOING TO ADDRESS SOME ISSUES THATNEED TO BE ADDRESSEDFOR EXAMPLE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION INTHE UNITED STATES.

IT ISBROKEN, AND IT WILL BE LESS BROKEN.

YOU MAY NOT AGREE ONEVERY TOOL HE IS USING TO ADDRESSIT, BUTEVERYONE AGREES IT IS BROKE EPPTHAT.

--BROKEN.

THAT IS ONE OF THEREASONS THAT HE WAS ELECTED.

AND WALTER, WHEN I LOOK AT WHAT YOUDOWITH THE AI AND LOOKING AT SCALE FROMWHAT WEARE GETTING FROM NEW ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTUREAND WHETHER ITIS ELECTRIC VEHICLES OR SOLAR OR WIND,ALL OFTHAT TO ME AT A GLOBAL LEVELIS VERY, VERY EXCITING FOR OUR KIDSAND FOROUR GRANDCHILDREN.

SO IT IS STILLTHE MOST EXTRAORDINARYTIME TO BE HERE AND IT IS JUST THATTHERE IS A LOT OFCHINA THAT IS GOING TO BE BROKEN LITERALLYAND FIGURATIVELY AS WE ARE MAKINGOUR WAY THROUGHIT.

>> IAN BREMMER, AS ALWAYS, THANKYOU FOR JOINING US.

>> THANKYOU, WALTER.